Head to head

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Fighter A

Fighter B

Model prediction

Why — edges for

How much to trust it

Tale of the tape

Predictions use the same fitted model as the rankings: latent class plus each fighter’s current statistical profile, age past 33, reach, and layoff as of the latest data. Edges are the model’s own log-odds contributions, biggest first — they always add up to the call. Confidence reflects both the margin and how much evidence sits behind each fighter; a near-even line with thin résumés is a coin flip wearing a suit. In walk-forward tests the model called 66% of 2025–26 fights between established fighters correctly.